December 2023

Volume 40, Issue 4

Modelling a Consultant Workforce for the United Kingdom: needs-based planning for Dental Public Health

Authors: Jennifer E. Gallagher Michael Donaldson Anup Karki Ross Keat C. Albert Yeung William Roberts Stephen Birch Stefan Listl Robert Witton
doi: 10.1922/CDH_00045Gallagher09


Objective: To develop a needs-based workforce planning model to explore specialist workforce capacity and capability for the effective, efficient, and safe provision of services in the United Kingdom (UK); and test the model using Dental Public Health (DPH). Basic Research Design: Data from a national workforce survey, national audit, and specialty workshops in 2020 and 2021 set the parameters for a safe effective DPH workforce. A working group drawing on external expertise, developed a conceptual workforce model which informed the mathematical modelling, taking a Markovian approach. The latter enabled the consideration of possible scenarios relating to workforce development. It involved exploration of capacity within each career stage in DPH across a time horizon of 15 years. Workforce capacity requirements were calculated, informed by past principles. Results: Currently an estimated 100 whole time equivalent (WTE) specialists are required to provide a realistic basic capacity nationally for DPH across the UK given the range of organisations, population growth, complexity and diversity of specialty roles. In February 2022 the specialty had 53.55 WTE academic/service consultants, thus a significant gap. The modelling evidence suggests a reduction in DPH specialist capacity towards a steady state in line with the current rate of training, recruitment and retention. The scenario involving increasing training numbers and drawing on other sources of public health trained dentists whilst retaining expertise within DPH has the potential to build workforce capacity. Conclusions: Current capacity is below basic requirements and approaching ‘steady state’. Retention and innovative capacity building are required to secure and safeguard the provision of specialist DPH services to meet the needs of the UK health and care systems. Keywords: Health Services Needs and Demand, Planning, Health Workforce, Public Health Dentistry, Markov Chains, Operational Research

£10 single article

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Abstracts Presented on 15 September 2023 during 27th Annual European Association of Dental Public Health (EADPH) Congress Introduction 0-0 Download
CDH Board 2023 195-195 Download
Editorial: BASCD at 50 196-198 Download
Dental Public Health in Action: Oral Health Advice for Looked-After-Children: A pilot care pathway in Buckinghamshire, UK 199-204 Download
Associations and discrepancies between global self-ratings of oral health and general health: a Bayesian approach 205-211 £10 single article
Investigating a Causal Relationship Between Diabetes Mellitus and Oropharyngeal Cancer: A Mendelian Randomization Study 212-220 £10 single article
Risk factors for oral frailty among community-dwelling pre-frail older adults in Japan: A cross-sectional analysis 221-226 Download
Determinants of Early Childhood Caries and their interactions: A Structural Equation Modelling approach 227-232 £10 single article
Modelling a Consultant Workforce for the United Kingdom: needs-based planning for Dental Public Health 233-241 £10 single article
Marginalization and tooth loss in older Mexican adults 242-247 Download
Mini-publics in dental public health policymaking 248-251 £10 single article
Methodological Issues with Head and Neck Cancer Prognostic Risk Prediction Models 252-260 £10 single article
Addendum to: The WHO Action Plan for Oral Health – How Can the EADPH Contribute - Opportunities and Challenges 261-261 Download


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