September 2010

Aim To project the future demand for dentists in Kuwait for the years 2007 to 2020 based on the period 1994 to 2006. The study addresses the supply of and demand for dentists in Kuwait in the light of emerging variables such as increasing population, economic growth, changes in dental care, education strategies, and changes in demographics of dentists. Basic research design Population projections for the years 2007 to 2020 were derived using the average annual natural increase rate of the 1994-2006 populations. The future demand for dentists for the years 2007 to 2020 was projected using the average dentist to population ratios of the years 1994-2006. Results The average annual growth rate of indigenous Kuwaiti dentists during the period 1994-2006 was 5.58% compared to 31.9 % for non-native expatriot dentists. There is a gap between the numbers of native and foreign dentists. In 2006, native dentists constituted 44.4% of the dental workforce in Kuwait, this is likely to affect the quality of provided dental care owing to language, religious and sociocultural barriers between foreign dentists and patients. The disparity between the total number of dentists needed and the number of native dentists is expected to decline from 54.41% in 2007 to 24.67% in 2020. Conclusions The supply of native dentists is likely to remain insufficient to meet the projected demand until the year 2020. The supply of indigenous dentists should be increased through improvement in recruitment and retention of Kuwaiti national dentists and dental students. Keywords: Dental care, dentists, Kuwait, supply and demand, workforce modeling.